In the year 2020, even if energy efficiency gains are only moderate, 47 percent of the power used in Germany will come from renewable energies. This figure has already taken into account grid losses, pump flow costs for storage power plants and the own consumption of conventional power plants (gross power consumption). The installed capacity and the power yield will triple to 111 GW or 278 billion kWh compared with today’s figures. Wind and solar energy, bio-mass, hydro power and geothermal energy will become distinctive features of the power supply system.
How realistic this rapid development really is can be seen if we look at the past: In 2007 already, the goal set by the government in the year 2000 to reach a share of 12.5 percent for renewable energy of the total power consumption had been exceeded. The goal of 20 percent envisaged for 2020 will probably already be reached in 2011.

The individual sectors:

Wind power
Wind energy remains one of the largest power producers in the renewable energy field. By 2020, industry expects that it will about 149 billion kWh will provide a quarter of the total German power consumption. In theory this could cover the total power needs of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg together. Wind power is mainly produced on shore. The industry assumes that today’s installed capacity of approx. 24 GW will almost double to 45 GW. As numerous old wind turbines will be replaced by new and more efficient ones (“repowering”), the number of the onshore wind energy systems will remain constant at around 20,000. With regard to the offshore development of wind parks, industry assumes that the goals of the government to reach an installed capacity of 10 GW by 2020 will be reached.

Bio-energy
The renewable energies industry foresees an increase of installed capacity in the bio-energy sector to 9.3 GW (2007: 4.1 GW) for 2020 and thus a doubling of the power generated from biomass to around 54 billion kWh. The major share will be made up by biogas, followed by solid biomass (in particular wood, residual substances) and far behind, liquid biomass (plant oil CHP) and sewage gas and landfill gas. Electricity from bio-energy will therefore be the second largest column in the power mix of the renewable energies in 2020. Due to permanent availability, bio-energy will provide the greatest contribution of all renewable energies to secured power supply.  

Photovoltaics
The contribution of photovoltaics to power production of will increase almost ten fold from 4.3 billion kWh today to almost 40 billion kWh by 2020, as will the installed capacity (2020: 39.5 GW). This is therefore the fastest growing of all renewable energy sectors, just behind offshore-wind and the geothermal energy. By 2020, it will prodvide 7 percent of the generated power. The reasons for this are the progress made in the efficiency of the technology and resulting cost reductions. The industry expects increasingly dynamic growth in the middle of the next decade, when the so-called grid parity will be reached. This means that the power generated from solar panels on the roof will be cheaper than the power purchased from the energy supplier.

Hydro power
In the so-called small hydro power, industry expects a greater increase by 2020 than in the past due to new economic incentives in the EEG 2009. Also, investments in large hydro power plants will become more attractive due to increasing fossil fuel prices, and therefore the forecast predicts an increase of installed capacity. In total, the power production from larg and smal hydro power will increase to 32 billion kWh in the year 2020 with an installed capacity of 6.5 GW (2007: 4.7 GW).
The industry believes that conflicts between nature conservation and hydro power can be easily solved, in particular due to the improved regulations in the EEG 2009. They can additionally be combined with support programmes for nature conservation and landscpape protection. Therefore the industry forecast assumes a high potential through modernisation of existing installations and reactivation the  closed down power plants in combination with ecological improvements, such as the installation of fish ways.

Geothermal
At present, of the installed capacity amounts to around 7 MW with an annual power production of 150 million kWh. The renewable energies industry foresees a steep increase in power and heat production from deep geothermal projects: By 2020, the installed capacity will increase to more than 600 MW with almost 4 billion kWh of generated electricity. The driving force behind this development will be the stable framework conditions that have been considerably improved by the EEG 2009. The deep geothermal projects can also receive extra funding from the government’s market incentive programme, which covers part of the risk. Today there are already around 150 “permission fields for searching for underground heat” in Germany. Some of these are of a size which would allow several projects to be realised. Experience gained from the initial projects will facilitate the realisation of subsequent projects.